Covid-19 and the Market Recovery

Covid-19 and the Market Recovery

When we look at the market there is a lot of uncertainty in how this pandemic will impact it.  Many believe the market is going to respond quickly.  The recovery, they say, will be V-shaped, indicating a quick rebound.   Their optimism is based on previous pandemic recoveries and comprehensive review of the market’s response.

Meanwhile, others, although they expect the market to respond positively, believe that its response will be a little more sluggish U-shaped recovery.  They anticipate the return to previous levels of economic success will not occur until the second or third quarter of next year. Recent polls indicate this is rapidly becoming the prevalent belief of most economists.

Regardless the view, it is not difficult to argue there is much confusion about how the market will respond.  Here are the results of that poll:

2021 Market Projections

Why the disparity in thinking among different groups of economic experts?

The current situation makes it extremely difficult to project the future of the economy. Analysts normally look at economic data and compare it to previous slowdowns to create their projections. This situation, however, is anything but normal.

Today, analysts must incorporate data from three different sciences into their recovery equation:

  • Business Science – How has the economy rebounded from similar slowdowns in the past?
  • Health Science – When will COVID-19 be under control? Will there be another flareup of the virus this fall?
  • Social Science – After businesses are fully operational, how long will it take American consumers to return to normal consumption patterns? (Ex: going to the movies, attending a sporting event, or flying).

The challenge of accurately combining the three sciences into a single projection has created uncertainty, and it has led to a wide range of opinions on the timing of the recovery.  Currently, the vast majority of economists and analysts believe a full recovery will take anywhere from 6-18 months. No one truly knows the exact timetable, but it will be coming.

Oly Pen Real Estate has a team of trusted real estate professionals to help you navigate changes in our industry. We have a watchful eye on Grays Harbor market so give your Oly Pen Real Estate Team a call today at 360.249.8187 or stop by our office 141 S. Main Street in friendly Montesano, WA and discuss your expectations today!